Health care by Achilles

Three weeks ago, this column expressed the opinion that Barack Obama was wasting his time trying to get Republican support for his health-care reform bill. And, lo, in the historic vote held close to midnight on Sunday, not a single Republican voted for it.

All Obama needed to do was concentrate on appeasing conservative Democrats — but even that was difficult enough to do. Thirty-four members of his party voted against the bill. If just four more representatives had joined them, Obama's presidency would be in very deep trouble indeed.

America appears to have two big political parties, but in reality, they are coalitions. Mainstream Democrats must constantly make concessions to a group of 54 "Blue Dog" Democrats — representatives from very conservative districts who try to shift the party's entire platform to the right in order for it to be locally palatable. Mainstream Republicans must accommodate the members of the so-called "religious right", who seek to blur the line between religion and politics.

Obama's concession to the Blue Dogs was a promise to sign an executive order (which he did on Wednesday) assuring that federal money will not be used to pay for abortions. Politically, he could afford to do this.

But as they say about opera, "It's not over till the fat lady sings." The metaphorical fat lady, in this case, is neither fat nor a lady; it's John Boehner, the leader of the Republicans in the Senate. He has promised to use "any means necessary" to still try to prevent the new law from taking effect.

He has an opportunity for that, because neither side is satisfied with the law as it is, and both parties will be trying to make amendments in their favor. If the amendments are cleverly written, Boehner may be able to put a big dent in what the law sets out to do. By allowing so much compromise from the outset, Obama has allowed the creation of the Achilles bill.

Achilles, you will recall, was made invulnerable as a baby when his mother dipped him in ambrosia (or the River Styx). But because she held him by the heel, this part of his body was unprotected. The Achilles heel of the health-care law is that much of it will not come into effect until 2014 — two years after the next presidential election. That gives the Republicans and tea party activists plenty of time to light the torches, gather the pitchforks, and storm the castle.

Parts of the new law will have just come into effect by this November's congressional election. If enough voters see the benefit in them, they won't want them to be taken away. All previous social programs became untouchable over time. But if no benefits are seen by November, the Republicans will gather public support by continuing to condemn the $940 billion cost before much of that money is spent. In a bankrupt nation with 10 percent unemployment, money talks louder than ever.

I predict that, unlike the legendary Achilles, the new law will remain mostly intact; but the idea that the government is spending too much money refuses to go away.