Where will Iran go from here?

How long will the regime tolerate the demonstrations, how long will the protesters remain on the streets, might everything end with a Tiananmen Square scenario? Questions, questions, questions. Because no one knows what's going on behind the closed doors in one of the most opaque governments in the world, the next move by Mousavi ally Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the powerful cleric and former president whose dislike of President Ahmadinejad is well known, could be crucial.

Meawhile, Juan Cole, an American academic and Middle East specialist, argues on his blog that the enormous demonstrations last week contain ominous echoes of the revolution that created the Islamic Republic exactly three decades ago.

"The repertoires of protest the reformists are using echo those of the 1978-79 Islamic Revolution — they are chanting 'God is great' ... another sign that this movement is not just alienated secularised elites," Cole writes, and adds:
"In 1978, such demonstrations for those killed in previous demonstrations grew in size all through the year, till they reached an alleged million in the streets of Tehran. Since the reformists are already claiming Monday's rally was a million, you wonder where things will go from here."

To get an idea of how things are developing and what might happen next, visit the BBC's special "Iran crisis" pages. The reporting is excellent.

UPDATE: The Iranian authorities have asked the BBC's correspondent in Tehran, Jon Leyne, to leave the country within 24 hours.